Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.390156 0.449902 0.514695 0.590046 0.675128 0.768078 0.877167
2025-06-22 0.291701 0.366901 0.454770 0.564535 0.697450 0.852631 1.046922
2025-06-29 0.225917 0.308619 0.412285 0.550654 0.729236 0.950545 1.243964
2025-07-06 0.174712 0.259013 0.372216 0.533310 0.754227 1.043761 1.448556
2025-07-13 0.145113 0.232584 0.357943 0.547296 0.821842 1.200377 1.755368
2025-07-20 0.117167 0.203149 0.334639 0.545260 0.867620 1.334231 2.049924
2025-07-27 0.097732 0.182845 0.321367 0.555921 0.933512 1.505167 2.418880
2025-08-03 0.082289 0.165871 0.310371 0.568424 1.004196 1.692264 2.834940
2025-08-10 0.064571 0.140879 0.281455 0.546761 1.017305 1.792665 3.130818
2025-08-17 0.049558 0.117283 0.250370 0.515854 1.010172 1.859511 3.381201
2025-08-24 0.039989 0.102242 0.232236 0.505251 1.036795 1.985494 3.743474
2025-08-31 0.032526 0.089773 0.216642 0.496711 1.065796 2.118799 4.132967
2025-09-07 0.028035 0.083320 0.213018 0.513156 1.147915 2.362419 4.754428
2025-09-14 0.021855 0.070740 0.193116 0.491769 1.152204 2.463452 5.130194
2025-09-21 0.017499 0.061555 0.178968 0.480381 1.175519 2.604143 5.597244
2025-09-28 0.013871 0.053137 0.164633 0.465718 1.189588 2.728518 6.047468
2025-10-05 0.012000 0.049490 0.161879 0.478667 1.267314 2.991867 6.801257
2025-10-12 0.009956 0.044462 0.154070 0.477308 1.311893 3.191059 7.445811
2025-10-19 0.008574 0.041243 0.150706 0.487137 1.384932 3.460275 8.264155
2025-10-26 0.007437 0.038487 0.148072 0.498544 1.463764 3.751329 9.158026
2025-11-02 0.005866 0.033168 0.135713 0.479515 1.462123 3.859722 9.665404
2025-11-09 0.004478 0.027857 0.121675 0.452218 1.434099 3.903120 10.032345
2025-11-16 0.003631 0.024624 0.113990 0.442932 1.453574 4.062148 10.678320